End of Season Top 10

Now that the Minor League seasons are wrapping, I figured I would toss together a top ten prospect list


1) Colby Rasmus: He had a down year and may not be St Louis bound just yet, but he is still among the top 5 prospects in the game

2) Brett Wallace: Am I jumping on the bandwagon too quickly? Had he not made AA, I would say yes. However, he has made it to Springfield and he keeps hitting---367 and 1109 OPS. Colby's spot is very shaky!

3) Daryl Jones: A breakout season can boost a prospect's status. Such is the case here. Jones is the 2nd best 5 tool guy we have. He has 20-20 written all over him. I would compare him to Curtis Granderson/a poor man's Griffey----seriously!

4) Jess Todd: With Garcia and Perez up to the Lou, he becomes the de facto top pitching prospect. That's not to say he has not earned it. He pitched very well at 3 stops this year with more than 130 Ks.

5) Bryan Anderson: Some are jumping off this bandwagon, but there is little reason to do so. He is still hitting---383 at Springfield, 281 at Memphis. If he can hit 10-15 HR/season, he is still a stud prospect.

6) Peter Kozma: He is developing somewhat slowly with the bat, but he is a very legit SS prospect. I expect him to be next year's Daryl Jones.

7) Clayton Mortensen: His style is very conducive to the organization. That's why he makes the top 10. The numbers need to improve next year to stay there.

8) Jason Motte: He is now a big leaguer for all intents and purposes. 110 K in 66 IP is filthy! I believe he will turn into a nice bullpen piece in the bigs next year.

9) David Freese: When you hit 26 HR with a 306 average in AAA, you get noticed. Remember, this guy skipped AA. He may be the 3B of the future unless...

10) Allen Craig: This guy gets there first. He hit 304 with 22 HR in AA. Either way, with Freese, Craig, and Wallace, we look set at 3B.

Honorable Mentions:

Mitch Boggs: Very solid in AAA
Jon Jay: Added a little power to a high batting average
Tyler Herron: A slight step back this year, but still could be a #3-4 starter

Ballpark Village

When the plans for New Busch Stadium first became public, one of the great selling points, as is the case with all new stadiums, was the economic impact that the stadium will have on the city. It was supposedly going to bring St. Louis new jobs, new out of region money, and a better downtown in general. Busch Stadium is now halfway through its third season and Ballpark Village is still a mere mirage. It is still in the stages of being a vision. However, it looks like that vision may soon become more of a reality. According to the St. Louis Cardinals website, an agreement between the team, city, and the Cordish Company has been reached. Construction on the new center for shopping and entertainment will begin as soon as the city approves the project, which Mayor Francis Slay has backed.[1]

The project, which has hit various snags and delays over the last few years, has become somewhat of a joke to various Cardinals fans, who have coined the term “Lake Dewitt” for the vacant area in reference to Cardinals Owner and President Bill Dewitt III.[2]

The project is said to be able to provide 3,000 construction jobs and 2,000 new, permanent jobs to the area. The numbers sound pretty optimistic to me. However, if all goes to plan and the development covers its eight acres with retail space, the numbers could be feasible. The only question remains is---when? With the All-Star Game slated for St. Louis in less than a year, one would think that Mayor Slay and company would do everything they can to get this project off the ground, for both aesthetic and economic purposes. Although a general game at Busch Stadium probably provides relatively little economic impact, a major event like an All-Star Game could provide a substantially amount. One would think that the City of St. Louis and the Cardinals would do everything they can to get the development finished by next July so more out of region money can be used within the city limits.

---

[1]http://stlouis.cardinals.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080723&content_id=3184896&vkey=news_stl&fext=.jsp&c_id=stl

[2] http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/wire?section=mlb&id=3502184

A Look through the System

Now that the Cubs have Harden and the Brewers Sabathia, what should the Cards do? Tony wants help! I say stay the course...for the most part. Either way, let's take a glance at what we may have to offer and let's look at some other prospects.


Untouchables:

Colby Rasmus---We know the story. It seems like he has been around forever.
Jaime Garcia----Now that Mulder is done and Jaime is on his way up, let's give him a shot. He would look nice as our #3-4 for the next decade


Top Chips with which to play:

Bryan Anderson--The guy can flat hit (383 in AA, 327 in AAA this year) and he will never be the starting catcher in St Louis. We may as well make him the top piece in any deal

Jess Todd---He has been our fastest riser this year. He could be a stalwart in the Cards or anybody's rotation. Maybe we should deal him while his stock is sky high (Futures Game)

Shane Robinson---If Rasmus can't push his way on to the big club, nor will Robinson. Why not trade this guy who hit 352 in AA this year? His value will never be higher, but he can not be the centerpiece of a blockbuster.

Clayton Mortensen--He is a Dave Duncan pitcher (ie---sinker!!). That is why I would put Todd ahead of him in trade-ability. He still has some very nice value.

David Freese---I would put him at #3 (behind Allen Craig and Brett Wallace) as far as our 3B of the future line goes. However, a line of 277, 24, and 47 halfway through the AAA season looks very tradeable.

Jon Jay--He has a sweet stroke that could stick as a CF in the bigs. Problem is---Colby Rasmus. His power boost (11 HR) this year make him even more enticing. I think he could be a nice #2 piece in a solid deadline deal.

Next Year Trade Deadline???:

Brett Wallace---He will hit, but can he field? If not, he will be on another roster within 2 years

Daryl Jones---This guy is boosting his prospect status every day.

Tyler Herron---He is a nice prospect, but his ceiling is lower than his production. That could mean a trade for a team that suddenly has a boat load of similar prospects.

Arnoldi Cruz---Is he a Catcher or 3b? Who cares---he has hit fairly consistently. If he sticks behind the plate, he could be a very good prospect in 2 years.

10-2

Who would have thought that Kyle Lohse would be perhaps the best signing of the offseason...for any time? Maybe that's an overstatement, but I am not so sure anymore. Tonight he threw 7 innings and gave up a single (unearned) run. That puts him at 10-2. Without hesitation, he is the reason, along with Ryan Ludwick, that the Cardinals are in a pennant race. There is no reason to believe that Lohse will miss the All Star cut. I believe that he, Ludwick, and Pujols all deserve the call this year. Either way, 48 wins going into July is pretty darn good. I am a believer now. Why not? This team might regress back to the mean, but they could improve. Mulder threw a scoreless inning tonight. Clement did the same in AAA. Who knows, maybe they are the answers to the mounting bullpen questions. Now to the scores...

Bigs
7-1W
Notables:

Kyle Lohse---7 IP, 5 H, 4 K, 1 R
Chris Duncan---HR
Albert Pujols---2 for 5, 2 RBI....Ho hum
Troy Glaus---2 for 3, RBI, R (This guy has really come around; good pick up)

Memphis
3-3 (10TH)
Notables:

Bryan Anderson---2 for 3, 2B, 3B
PJ Walters----5 IP, 2 ER, 5 K

Springfield
5-4 W
Notables:

Allen Craig---2 for 4, 3 RBI
Andrew Brown---2 for 3, R, BB (Under the radar guy to keep a close eye on!!!)
Tyler Greene--3 for 4 (Mr Tools needs to have more of these games)
Fernando Salas---2 ER, 2 IP, 3 K! (Might be the fastest riser in the organization)

Palm Beach
4-3W
Notables:

Tyler Norrick----7 K, 5 IP

Quad Cities
17-4 L
Notables:

?????

Batavia
5-0W
Notables:

Scott Gorgen---3IP, 5 K (Perhaps my favorite pick this year; He could be a fast riser a la Jess Todd)
Beau Riportella---3 for 4
Blake Murphy---2 for 4, HR, 2RBI (Interesting prospect here; May be worth a watch)


Johnson City
4-3 L
Notables:

Ivan Castro---2 for 3, HR, 2 RBI (Another catcher with some potential)


Looking through these scores, I find that our catching prospects are getting a lot of the print. Here is a quick breakdown:

1) Bryan Anderson: He is the top catcher in the organization and one of the top 5 in minor league baseball. He will get a lot of Joe Mauer comparisons. He has a nice stroke, but lacks power. Hopefully, he can develop into a 10-15 HR guy. That would give him maximum value.

2) Arnoldi Tony Cruz: He has made the switch from 3rd to Catcher, although he still does play some 3rd too. His bat just keeps him here. That would be a great bat for a catcher.

3) Ivan Castro: Although a very small sample size, you gotta like what is here.

4) Blake Murphy: This guy could be a draft steal. His collegiate numbers suggest a very versatile player with plus plus tools for a catcher.

5) Luis De La Cruz: He is playing over his head a bit this year, but he has some serious potential. Give it time.

Others to watch:

Brandon Yarbrough
Nick Derba

Boston Blue Sox

The Red Sox had lost just 1 series at home this year. Now they have lost 2. After the Cards took a 2nd game on Saturday (and quite handily I might add), they became the 2nd team to handle the Sox in Fenway this year.

Bigs
9-3 W
A hit parade!!
Glaus, Miles and Ankiel each homered with Troy's being a Grand Salami
Boggs threw a very solid 5.1
McLellan had 4 Ks against 5 batters
Izzy threw 1 scoreless

Memphis
8-5 L
Jaime Garcia got the start and struggled---3 ER in 5 IP and 3 WP
Rasmus and Anderson each had a hit in 5 AB

Springfield
8-1L

Rough night for one of my favorites--Tyler Herron
Herron gave up 7 ER in 6 IP with 2 K, 2BB, and 3 HBP---OUCH!!
Jon Jay goes 2-4. He is suddenly our hottest prospect and should find himself in AAA sooner rather than later.

Palm Beach
Off

Quad Cities
4-2 L
Josh Wilson started and threw 6: 7 H, 2 R 1 ER 5 K (He hasn't done much since being a 1st rounder, but he is still young and his numbers are pretty good this year)

Tommy Pham had another Tommy Pham night: A HR and 3 Ks

Batavia
7-5W
Blake Murphy goes 3-4, a single double triple and BB (A mid round Catcher to keep an eye on)
Lance Lynn throws 2 scoreless

Note: This is the team to watch if you want to see a who's who among the Cards draft. Names to watch include Lynn, Murphy, Colt Sedbrook, Chris Swauger, Xavier Scruggs, Shane Peterson, and Jermaine Curtis. Like I said---a who's who

Johnson City
7-6W
Nico Vasquez goes 2-5(Keep this name in mind; he could be good)

Bringing Up Bryan

Maybe I'm crazy, but I think it's time. It's time for Bryan Anderson to be elevated to the bigs (if Yadi is DL'ed that is). He has hit 320 with Memphis this year. His bat has a ton of upside. Why not bring him up and let him play everyday if Yadi is out for an extended period? Then we will see what we have in his bat. Perhaps, a Spring look at 2nd Base would then be in order. Like I said, what's the worst that could happen?

Games:

Cards
7-6 Winner

It was a doozy. Yadi could miss substantial time, but he saved the game with his plate blocking antics. A couple of Phillie errors later and we have 42 wins. 42 wins? Wow! Who would have thunk it....

Good days at the dish for Ankiel and Glaus

Springfield
3-1L

Josh Dew K'd 2 in 1 IP. That's about it. His Palm Beach line was stellar. So far, his Springfield line has left something to be desired, but some peripherals are shining (3-1K:BB)

Memphis
6-1 L

Brian Barden (31O BA) and David Freese (10 HR) are fighting for ML spots. I am not sure where they belong but both keep hitting the ball in AAA. Jaime Garcia got a little roughed up (6 ER in 5 IP)

I would think that Barden is on track to be next year's Aaron Miles as he can play 2b,SS, and 3B. Freese---He is 25 and is blocked a bit by Troy Glaus. He will never be a long term answer at 3rd for the Cards, but he can hit a little bit obviously (17 and 96 last year).

A Good Night

The Big Birds get a win handily

Looper throws a 3 hit shutout and the bats score 10 off of Johnny Cueto, a big time prospect. Heck, even Jason LaRue went yard. You know things are going well when LaRue hits a dinger.

Memphis
5-2 W
Colby continues to heat up. He goes 2-4 and walks. Brian Barden has a double and HR in the win where Mike Parisi goes the distance.

Here's a question---How would Barden fare as the Aaron Miles next year? With these numbers, why has he never been able to stick in the bigs before?

Springfield
6-1W
Izzy strikes out 2 of the 5 hitters he faced
Allen Craig goes 2-4

However, the big story here is Jesse Todd. He throws 7.1 innings and gives up a single unearned run. He also manages 6 Ks. He is 5-1 this year with a Springfield ERA of .83. Did you read that right----0.83!!!!! The peripherals are also very solid. 66 K: 16 BB, a GB % of about 55 and a WHIP under 1. I think it is time to start considering Todd, not Jaime Garcia (as good as he's been) our top pitching prospect....no seriously!!

Palm Beach
9-3 L
Nothing too exciting here. Donovan Solano goes 3-5
18 year old stud, Richard Castillo, goes 3 scoreless. Bookmark this guy.
He is 18 y/o and is doing well (so far) in High A ball. Smells like a BA gem in a couple of years.

Quad Cities
2-1 L 7-3W (Double header)
Tommy Pham hits another HR. Like I said yesterday, this guy is still one to watch. He is young and can hit for a lot of power. Hopefully, the plate discipline will develop.
Blake King has a nice outing---4 IP, 7 K

Bad News Birds

So let's start with the good news----The Cards won! They won with a lot of hitting (Homers from Ankiel, Pujols, and Ludwick) and some very sound mound work (Boggs--4 H, 5IP, 2 ER; Bullpen---4 IP, 1 H). That is not too shabby. They walk away a 7-2 victor and Ryan Ludwick looks like his old (or is that new?) self.

Now the bad, nay awful, news. Albert Pujols is injured! He will go on the DL today with an injured calf. The seriousness of the injury has yet to be determined. Let's hope it is a quick 15 day stint. Now a quick injury countdown: Our 3 best players (Carp, Pujols, Waino), a bunch more pitchers (Mulder, Clement, Pineiro, Thompson, Kinney, Johnson, Izzy---Jeez! That would make a very solid staff right there), and some others here and there (Ankiel, et al). This is getting serious.... (Clue, 1985)


Now to the Baby Birds...

Memphis
-Colby is ok. He went 2-4 and is hitting 225. No, 225 is not great, but it is better than 180!!
-Anthony Reyes went 7 giving up 3 runs. How frustrating...
-Very little offense in this game as Brian Barden had the lone XBase hit for the Redbirds (a double)
-Iowa wins 4-3

Springfield
-A 3-1 winner
-Tyler Herron goes 5.2 and gives up a single run. He has really flown under the radar the last couple of years. He keeps posting sub 4 ERAs and striking batters out better than 2:1. In fact he had 24K to 2BB in Palm Beach before his latest promotion. He turns 22 in August

Palm Beach
A 5-4 winner
-Nothing too exciting to speak of. Brad Furnish was very average on the mound in the victory

Quad Cities
8-5 W
-The big story of the night is Tommy Pham. He hit 2 HR. The 20 year old CF has a paltry average---around 200 in a QC/PB combo. However, he has also hit 10 HR between the 2 teams. I would not be at all surprised if he is one of the big jumps next year. It seems that Daryl Jones is starting to put the tools together this year. Maybe Pham can follow suit next year.

Another quick note:
The Cards have finalized contracts with 30 picks, including a couple of high profile guys. Sandwich pick Lance Lynn has agreed to terms. I would not at all be surprised if he found himself in the Quad Cities to start. Also, Devin Shepherd, Shane Peterson, Jermaine Curtis, and Anthony Ferrara have all signed. Here is a look at the full story from the Cards website

Here is a better story from STLTODAY

News and Notes: Read at Own Risk

I don't know whether Cardinal Nation should be terribly concerned (Wainwright is on DL and Wellemeyer is hurting) or very excited (Boggs is starting tonight, McLellan might get a rotation shot, and Garcia would appear to be next in line). I guess the abundance of pitchers is a good problem to have, but frankly I didn't want to see the Memphis Mafia Part Deux just yet. I was getting very comfortable with a Starting Five of Waino, Lohse, Wellemeyer, Looper, and (eventually) Pineiro. Right now, most teams would take our DL rotation in a stretch run any day of the week (Carp, Waino, Mulder, Clement, Thompson). Ugh! Is our medical staff that bad, or is it just dumb luck? Clement is not on our staff, but the rest--maybe so. Oh well, such is the world of America's Pastime. Let's move forward and play the game.

I am very excited to see Boggs tonight. In all likelihood, he becomes the next Brad Thompson for our bullpen. He probably won't end up as a big league starter----of course the same was thought with Looper and Wellemeyer (and Kent Bottenfield for that matter). Let's give Dave Duncan a round of applause. He should be in the Hall of Fame real soon for those 3 names alone. Let's see how he can do with McLellan/Garcia. I think we have 2/5 of our 2009 rotation right there.

The draft is a wrap. Keith Law approves (Cards #4 for him). I approve. Some say upside is not there. I say pish posh. Scott Gorgen has loads of upside. The only knock on him is size (short and stocky). Who cares? If he can pitch, he can pitch, and this guy CAN PITCH. Saw him a few days ago. The reports on his advanced change are spot on. I think he will surprise a ton of people and eventually land in the BA top ten for the Cards. Besides Gorgen, we got a nice, balanced haul. Niko Vazquez might be a power bat at 2nd. Aaron Luna too. It is unlikey that both pan out, but if 1 of the 2 does, we have a legit power bat for that barren wasteland in teh system. As far as pitching is concerned (besides the aforementioned Gorgen), it is all about signability issues. Lance Lynn will be signed and he will be an underwhelming pro. His ceiling is #4. Hey, that's fine. Every team needs 5 starters. The 2 signability issues to which I refer are Anthony Ferrara (a high school LHP) and Mitch Harris (RHP out of Navy). If we can sign both of these guys, our draft goes from solid to great. Harris could be a #3--not bad for a 13th rounder (come to think of it, we have had success with 13th rounders----Pujols!!!). Ferrara could be a 7th round steal. He has a low riding fastball at 90-91 and a couple of developing off speed offerings. Other notable names---Xavier Scruggs, Devin Shepherd, and Jermaine Curtis.

The draft ceiling: 7-8 big leaguers
Floor: 1 big leaguer----there is 0 chance that Brett Wallace's bat doesn't crack the bigs

Speaking of drafts and cracking the bigs, let's look at a few previous years---starting with the 2004 draft.

2004:

Best Pick: Ummmm....Mark Worrell???
Worst Pick: Gotta go with Chris Lambert

Ugh!! Flush rounds 1-5. We got nothing. In fact, I sit next to 3rd rounder Eric Haberer in class now. 9th rounder Mike Parisi was ok in a brief STL stint and 12th rounder Mark Worrell has had a sniff.
Still hope: Matt Scherer and Jarrett Hoffpauir.

Grade--D

2005:
Best Pick: Colby Rasmus is a top 10 prospect, but Jaime Garcia is a top 30 prospect that the Cards dug out of round 22.
Worst Pick: Nick Webber I guess----Its hard to call a guy that has cracked AAA in 3 years a terrible pick, but he was considered a big time prospect coming out

Other good picks: Mitch Boggs has made the majors. Kenny Maiques appears to be a 37th round find

Others of note: Tyler Herron, Mark Mckormick, and Tyler Greene all are still around. Herron probably has the best chance of getting to St Louis. 3rd rounder Daryl Jones is starting to put the tools together and 4th rounder Bryan Anderson has hit his way to Memphis (at age 21). Overall, I could see at least 5-6 out of this group in St Louis

Grade----A-; We had 4 1st rounders. Rasmus looks like the best pick. Getting Garcia that late could be epic in a couple of years. If Jones can develop a 20-25 HR swing and Anderson can hit for a little power, this class is A+ without hesitation

2006:
Best Pick: Chris Perez is the real deal
Worst Pick: Adam Ottavino might be a real bust

Others of note--Shane Robinson is hitting well, Brad Furnish might still become a very good prospect, Allen Craig and PJ Walters have been pleasant surprises, and John Jay has turned into a legit prospect. Nick Additon was a huge steal in round 47. He is still in A ball, but is progressing.

Grade---A-: Blowing the Ottavino pick hurts, but this draft could eventually trump '05. If Walters, Perez, Craig, and Jay keep doing what they are doing, we have a nice haul. Jon Edwards is still a guy to keep an eye on, as is D'Marcus Ingram. Additon is a long shot, but right now he is our 2nd best LHP.

2007:
Best Pick: Jesse Todd has exceeded expectations big time. Some believe that he, not Garcia, is our top pitching prospect
Worst Pick: They wasted a 4th rounder on a guy, Kyle Russell, that it seems they had no intention of signing

Others of note: Kozma is starting to look like a very solid 1st rounder; he is the organization's SS of the Future. Clayton Mortensen has had his critics, but he has also cracked AAA---This is probably Best Pick 1A. 8th Rounder Tyler Henley has a lot of fans. I project him as more of a 4-5 OF, but he is a baller. Rounds 13-14 (Steven Hill and Josh Dew) look like steals so far.

Grade: B---This class was a bit unheralded. Kozma and Mortensen both had their critics. Not as good as the 2 previous years, but better than most critics believed at the time. I could see 2/5 of our starting 5 being from this draft come 2010.


1 final tidbit---Looking back at the previous draft classes, I found that 2003 COULD HAVE BEEN stellar.

We drafted: Anthony Reyes, Daric Barton, Brett Sinkbeil, Max Sherzer, and Ian Kennedy
That is a pretty solid group

Draft Notes

Our 1st pick is in--Big Brett Wallace
http://thesundevils.cstv.com/sports/m-basebl/mtt/wallace_brett00.html

He is a big, bulky dude---a 3B that might make Miggy Cabrera look like Twiggy. As long as he can hit (he alleged does that really well), I am more than content. You know he will almost certainly sign so that is not an issue. If he eventually has to leave 3rd for a different position, he could go LF or to another team. Right now, all he has to do is HIT!

Here is a link with some video
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/events/draft_report/y2008/index.jsp?mc=wallace


Pick 2: Lance Lynn, RHP Ole Miss

Another big guy---6'5 260. Pound for pound, we win rounds 1 and sandwich

As far as skill goes, this is not all that exciting of a pick. I keep hearing Kevin Millwood comps. Of course, last year Mortensen was supposedly a blah pick as well. Now, he is arguably our #2 pitcher on the farm. Lynn is said to have a good fastball, workable change, and an average breaking pitch. I smell a fast tracker suited for Dave Duncan

Lance Lynn video

Shane Peterson, a Long Beach State OF/1B came next. Another somewhat blah pick. The upside doesn't sound all that great

Others:
Earnest Vasquez
Scott Gorgen

Jaime Time?

Lets start with the big club

Lohse pitched 5 strong innings before handing the ball to a sharp bullpen. When you can get 4 shutout innings without using Perez, Flores, and Franklin, you are doing alright.

At the plate, Yadi had a nice night---3 RBI. Joe Mather didn't have a hit, but I will take a 600 OBP (3 BB) in the #2 spot any day of the week. Albert appreciates it I'm sure. Kind of a lopsided box score. No hits from 1-3. 11 hits from 4-9 (Cesar had 3 of them). As much as management was criticized for that signing, I will give them props. I remember back when he had more errors than hits in spring. Not the case anymore. He has been darn near spectacular in the field and solid in the 9 hole. If we could find an adequate bat for 2B, I think we would have a very good lineup.

Memphis
Jaime Garcia!! 7 IP, 3 H, 9 K!! 2 ER---That's a damn fine line. Is it safe to say that he is the best lefty still in the minors (Kershaw is up)? I believe it to be a 2 horse race with David Price (Tampa Bay). His ERA is 3.50. He has a solid WHIP and K:BB. I think we have a great #3 for years to come (I am assuming Carp/Waino go 1-2).

By the way, David Price is a year older and 2 steps lower in the minors.

At the plate, Colby went 1-4 (a HR!) with a walk. I bet he is hitting 260 by the end of June. The Redbirds get a 7-2 W.

Quad Cities
Blake King walked 6 and his offense got 4 hits. Enough said. A 5-0 loss

Palm Beach
6 innings of 1 hit ball for MATT CLEMENT! He struck out 5 batters and got 9 outs via the ground ball. Who would have thought that he would be closer at this point than Mark Mulder? The fact that he missed some bats is the most important thing to me because that means he has some arm strength back. If he reinvents himself completely to a GB pitcher, Dunc won't complain. Great news all around here. We have the luxury of taking our time, but he would be a nice August addition.
Little offense to speak of in the 2-1 victory.

A Stinker

Waino was on fire for 6 innings. Then the wheels came off. Losses like that, to me, are much more difficult to stomach than the blowout variety (Saturday). 4-3 at home just does not sound all that great when we should have went 5-2 on the home stand. It's even more difficult when we see the Cubs win every game they play (seemingly). Hopefully we can pick it up in DC.

In other news, Colby is picking it up. He went 2-5 in a loss and has his average up to 224. I smell a hot June coming on. Mark McCormick gave up 3 hits in 7 innings. Too bad all 3 were homers. Fernando Salas came in and threw a shutout 9th in the same game (3 Ks!!). He has struck out 56 and walked 8 on the year. Nick Additon pitched 5 innings of no hit ball and struck out 6. He needs to be promoted ASAP. Pete Kozma had a single, double, and triple in the Quad Cities victory.

Mather Up

Duncan down

Thank you very much!

Draft Bits--College Arms

Traditionally, this is the route the Cards take. So, here are the most likely names you will hear at 13.

Brian Matusz-A tall (6'5), somewhat wiry Lefty from San Diego. Can get the fastball up to the mid 90s, but will mostly hang around the 88-91 mph area. He throws an adavanced change and 2 good breaking pitches (a go-to curve and a workable slider/cutter). Having 4 solid offerings at this point makes him the top pitcher in the class and being left handed doesn't hurt. He reminds me of Mark Mulder (the 2000-2002 version) and will almost certainly be gone by the Cards pick. His ceiling is not as high as some others, but he should at least be a #3 in the majors. There is also some fast track possibilities because of his advanced change.

Aaron Crow--I would say the chances of him being available are slim to slimmer. He is a 6'3 righty out of Mizzou. He can get it up there in the upper 90's (97!!) with some movement. He also has a future out pitch in a slider and a change-up that has potential to be a 3rd pitch to set up hitters. Like many hard throwers, his command seems raw. But, his stuff his absolutely Ace-like. I think he is the syrest arm in the draft outside of Brian Matusz. However, Crow's ceiling is much higher.

Tanner Schepers--A 6'4 RHP out of Fresno State, he mixes a low to mid 90's fastball that moves with a plus slider. He rarely throws a change, but the same can be said about Chris Carpenter. He has a very high ceiling, but there is also a big "miss factor" here. He is fairly new to the mound (was recruited as a SS) and may take a little more time in the minors than other collegiate pitchers. However, there is also a big "hit factor" here. He could be an Ace/#2 in the bigs in 3 years.

Shooter Hunt--A 6'3 Righty from Tulane with a great 1-2 fastball curveball combo. His walk rates are a little high, but he is a bulldog on the mound with great poise. He could be an Ace, but I am hesitant to use that terminology. He seems a little like Adam Ottavino.

Christian Friedrich--A 6'3 Lefty out of Eastern Kentucky, he mixes an average fastball (won't get harder than 92/93) with a plus plus curve and a cutter. A big caveat here is his lack of a change-up. He has it but it is far below average. That won't cut it for a 1st round lefty. He will be drafted higher than he should be because of his lefthandedness.


In a perfect world, we would get one of the 1st 2. However, they will probably both be gone. If that is the case, Scheppers seems to be the man.

May 28 Wrap

A quick organizational report today.

Bigs
Waino went 8, allowed just 1 run on 3 hits. He walked 1 batter and struck out 8. Not a bad night. He currently sports a 2.86 ERA and a 3:1 K:BB. He has given up just 66 hits in 78 innings. His WHIP is above 1, but not by much.

No outstanding offensive performances to speak of. I didn't see the game, but it must have been a very scrappy 6 runs.

AAA
Like the big club, Memphis gets a 6-1 W. Rasmus is starting to walk and hit again. He was on base 60% of the time yesterday.

Big story down there is also pitching. Mitch Boggs went the distance and allowed just 1 run on 5 hits. He walked 4 (no good), but K'ed 5. He has a 3.17 ERA---I bet he gets a shot next year whether it is in the pen or rotation.

AA
Jose Martinez homered again. His subpar start could end up being a solid season. He has 4 jacks. SHane Robinson contributed 3 hits in 5 ABs.
Pitching was so-so. Mark McCormick walked 4 and allowed 3 ERs in 5 innings. He only struck out 2. Although his ERA is 2.45, he has given up more walks than Ks.

A
Palm Beach won 3-2. No stellar performances to speak of, although Fransisco Samuel did strike out 2 of 3 he faced.

Quad Cities only managed 2 hits in a 4-1 loss.

Names for Draft

I never get too much into the ML baseball draft. There are simply too many players for me to wrap my mind around. However, this year I have got into it a little more. That is because the Cards have a high pick (#13) and there are some local kids that are going to make a big splash. One of them is Aaron Crow. He is a Missouri RHP that projects as a #2 in the bigs. He has a 4:1 K:BB and a solid frame. He will probably be gone by the time the Cards pick. Some believe he could sneak into the top 5. 6-10 is more likely. The other 2 big time local prospects are Tim Melville and Jake Odorizzi, the 2nd and 8th best high school pitchers respectively (says Baseball America). Melville is tall with 2 plus pitches already (fastball, curveball). He has been compared to Adam Wainwright. His command may be an issue and he lacks a 3rd pitch, but he is only a high schooler. Those things can be developed with time and minor league training. I would love to see the Cards take him, but I doubt it will happen because of team philosophy (they prefer college arms) and his dropping stock (13 seems to be pretty high for him at this point). The guy that interests me most his Jake Odorizzi for a number of reasons.
#1--He is from the same town in which I currently reside (Highland,IL)
#2--He could project as a pitcher or a shortstop, where he excels with the glove and bat
#3--He could be a really good pitcher and could be had in round 2 for the Cards

Let's follow up on #3. His best pitch is his 2 seam fastball (a necessity for the Cardinal organization). He also mixes in a 4 seamer that he can get up there about 3-4 mph faster (it has been clocked as high as 95 as of his Junior year). His curve is already a plus pitch and he is working on both a slider and a change up. By my count, he has 3 plus pitches as a high schooler and could have 2 more by the time he cracks the bigs. One "knock" on him is the fact that he doesn't strike out a ton of batters (although 106 K's in 70 innings looks pretty good to me; its a slightly better average than Melville ironically). In the eyes of the organizational philosophy, that is no knock at all---pitch to contact. Throw that 2 seamer and let your defense make the outs. Another knock is his size---he is a wiry 6'2, 170. I guess you could call it "room to grow". I would love to see the Cards make him a 2nd rounder. Of course, with that 0.00 ERA of his, he may not be available come the Cards 2nd pick.

I will next feature a few hitters that could be looked at when lucky #13 rolls around.

Zach Collier--He is a high school outfielder that fits the bill of athletic/strong. I doubt he would be the pick because of the presence of Daryl Jones in the system, but he is one to watch.

Aaron Hicks-a 6'2, 170 switch hitting OF; he could probably handle the defense in the majors right now, but the offense is raw. If the Cards are looking long term/tools, he would be a good pick

Brett Wallace--He is a 3rd baseman at Arizona State. That right there makes him a logical choice for the Cards. 3rd base is a barren wasteland in the minors (Allen Craig is a lone mediocrity). He can flat out hit. He hits from the left side, has good plate discipline and some pop. One big caveat--he may project as a 1B or a defensive liability at 3rd. At this point, I would take a defensive liability at 3rd if he can hit.

Game Notes and others

First off, last night's game was a real stinker. It reminded me of the 2007 Cardinals. They showed little hard, little passion, and basically little ability. Very few positives can be taken from the game. Albert was on base a bunch and Barton hit a home run. For some reason, Ludwick sat the bench again (seriously Tony---he's a freaking All Star at this point!!!) and Duncan sucked at the plate, in the field, and probably on the bench. Looper looked awful. It is a wonder how he is on pace for 18 wins. Overall, it was just a frustrating game. Oh, and why must we continue to deal with Kennedy. He has to be one of the worst #6 hitters this decade. It is time to start looking for an alternate with a little power. Grudzelanik (I butchered that) available yet?

In the minors, we fared a little better. We were down at Memphis 8-1 in the 5th. I checked this morning. We lost 10-8. A loss is a loss, but you gotta love the fight. Bryan Anderson went 4 for 5 (4 singles) while Colby went 2 for 4 with a 2b and a BB. Perhaps he is waking up. Next stop for him---the Mendoza Line!

Palm Beach won handily. Kyle Mura threw 8.1 IP, giving up just 2 runs while striking out 6. Nice night. I don't know too much about him, but here you go. He is 23 in Palm Beach (a little old for that league). He has a 4:1 K:BB---pretty nice. He has thrown 49 innings and has 38 Ks. He has given up some hits, but has seemingly always limited the long ball (only 1 this year).

Prospect Notes

I want to talk about a few prospects of note in my prospect notes.
Let's start in Springfield, just a hop skip and jump from the bigs (literally and figuratively)

Fernando Salas-an ERA of 1.86 and a K/BB of 6:1. His 48 K's have come in 29 innings. In those 29 innings, he has allowed just 16 hits. I am salivating over what might become the filthiest 7-8-9 in the big leagues in 2 years. I am talking about Motte-Salas-Perez.

Shane Robinson-A 369 average is great whether your name is Shane Robinson or Albert Pujols (or Ryan Ludwick for that matter). He already has 8 more RBI than a year ago and his walks and strikeouts line up fairly equally (he does neither very often). I like to see the 10 SB. He probably has a 4th/5th OF ceiling, but that's ok---you need 5 OF on a big league roster.

Pete Kozma-The former 1st rounder is starting to show us why he was that. He is hitting 286 with a 370 OBP. Those are reasonable for a guy that is projected to be a plus defender. Of his 48 hits, 13 have gone for extra bases. That also seems fairly reasonable.

David Freese-He is a 3rd baseman that came over in the Edmonds deal. The 272 average is fine for a power guy. He isn't a great home run guy (he's got 5), but 17 of his 44 hits have gone for extra bases. He has only 12 times to 43 strike outs. I would love to see that improve. 1 plus---he skipped AA (A to AAA is a big jump). 1 minus--He is already 25. Of course, Chase Utley didn't come up until 26 or so. Maybe Freese could project as a poor man's Jeff Kent?

Curveballs

Man, I don't think I have ever seen a guy throw so many consecutive curveballs. Don't get me wrong, Parisi has a darn good curve. But you gotta think that eventually they can sit on it and whack a game winning single to right field. I was just shocked that it took so long for a hitter to do it. When the game was over, I wasn't even mad or upset or frustrated. Sometimes, the opposition just beats you. It was nobody's fault. We didn't pitch poorly, play porous defense, leave runners on base or anything like that. One major league team just did enough to beat another major league team. That's all. You've got to look at the positives. Todd Wellemeyer. Might I remind you that he was released by the Kansas City Royals about a year ago. He is our 3rd best starter and that is no slap at Pineiro/Loper. Wellemeyer has simply been that good, and he seems to be getting better by the start. In fact, he may even be our #2. I find myself thinking about the future of this organization. Wellemeyer is putting himself into that conversation. Other positives of note---McLellan. He is leading the majors in holds, take it for what its worth. All I know is that it is nice to have a 4 pitch guy out of the pen who throws fairly hard. He has to be in the rotation conversation next spring. Finally, lets go back to Mike Parisi. I don't think that he will be in rotation 2009, but I have liked him a lot so far. If he can throw that many curveballs for strikes and consistently fool major league hitters with it (with the exception of a single pitch), it must be a darn good offering. I am not sure if he has a 3rd good pitch. One way or another, I would love to see him stick around as a long man. By my estimation, we are putting together a stellar pitching staff for 2009 right now.

I don't want to take away from the here and now, but this is an exciting situation. Here is an early projection for our pitching outlook:

Rotation
Chris Carpenter
Adam Wainwright
Todd Wellemeyer
Joel Pineiro
Kyle McLellan/Jaime Garcia

Bullpen
Kyle McLellan/Jaime Garcia
Mitchel Boggs
Mike Parisi
Randy Flores
Tyler Johnson
Ryan Franklin
Chris Perez

I have not even included Thompson, Reyes, Izzy, Motte, or Kinney, We still look like we're in good shape.

In LA

18 innings,1 run---that is how our pitching staff has done so far in LA. Perhaps they don't have the best offense, but these are major league hitters. Lohse was just as good last night as Waino on Friday. Perez once again showed that he is the deal. McLellan looked very good. Our offense showed that they can score without Ryan Ludwick.


To quote "The Polar Express"---I Believe: This team is for real.

Pitching

Last night, Wainwright was very good. He was not stellar, but he was very good. A very good Adam Wainwright can shut down any lineup in baseball. The 1 run that did score could have been prevented had Ludwick played the ball differently. However, I don't think now is a good time to criticize our best hitter. One thing that I would like to see Waino do, however, is throw more sliders/cutters. He has a solid 3rd pitch there, but he rarely relies on it for more than a throw away. I would like to see him develop it into an out pitch. It has that sort of potential. One thing about last night's game that stuck out for some reason was an AB by Juan Pierre. It was later in the game, maybe 6th or 7th. Wainwright zipped a 92 mph fastball by Pierre's bat on the outside corner for a strikeout. This might not seem like a big deal, but this was only Pierre's 5th K of the season in 131 at bats. Still, not that big of a deal. However, it is the way that Pierre looked at the plate. Usually, as a general rule of thumb, hitters are told at a young age to look for the fastball and adjust to the offspeed junk. Pierre was way behind on the pitch as if to say that he expected a curve ball. So, now hitters fear Wainwright's curve ball. They are trying to adjust to fastballs that they won't touch because their timing is off. I am happy to see Waino/Yadi recognize this. The fastball was beautiful pitch selection.
Speaking of fastballs, how about Chris Perez!! I have never been so excited to see a reliever pitch. I am at the edge of my seat in anticipation when he comes to the mound. The crazy thing is that Hrabosky and everyone keep saying that he has a filthy slider. I have seen him throw it about 3 times so far. It has nice movement---tight action, but he hasn't even needed it yet. Rock and fire! That is all he needs right now. When he starts throwing the filth, hitters will be at his mercy.

Mather Time!!

Joe Mather has 10 Homers at AAA. He walks more than he K's. He plays a solid defense and can play 5 positions (if need be). His OPS is 1084(!!!!!) right now. All this is true while Brian Barton hits 250 for the big club with porous defense and limited power. Something must be done. I understand the Rule 5 rules, but we could work out a deal with Cleveland. Mather needs to be brought up!!

What's Up With Colby?

The Cards top prospect, Colby Rasmus, is struggling. That is putting it very gently. His line is really starting to worry me. In 198 at bats, he is 21 point below the Mendoza Line. His OPS is about 200 down from his career mark. The homers are there---somewhat. He has 6 to go along with 6 RBIs. Early on, I thought it was a fluke--maybe tough luck. Nope. Line drive rate is down from 23% to 8%. That is scary bad. Strikeouts and walks basically line up to his career numbers, but he is just not squaring the ball. Now, he is routinely going 0 for games and hitting 8th in the lineup. Hopefully, he will figure it out soon and cool the worries in the minor league blogosphere, but right now there is cause for concern.

Cards Win! Cards Win!

This has become a common theme this year. Last night was no different. It's nice to get a victory with little actual offensive production out of Albert. Skip was on base 5 times....5 TIMES!!! That epitomizes the job of a lead-off hitter in the big leagues. Looper was solid, not spectacular. Defense was very good again---namely Skip's big diving catch in center. The hitting was timely---2 out scoring is a thing of beauty. The Padres may be a bunch of cast offs and also rans this year, but wins are wins. Let's go get 'em at Chavez this weekend!