Mather Up

Duncan down

Thank you very much!

Draft Bits--College Arms

Traditionally, this is the route the Cards take. So, here are the most likely names you will hear at 13.

Brian Matusz-A tall (6'5), somewhat wiry Lefty from San Diego. Can get the fastball up to the mid 90s, but will mostly hang around the 88-91 mph area. He throws an adavanced change and 2 good breaking pitches (a go-to curve and a workable slider/cutter). Having 4 solid offerings at this point makes him the top pitcher in the class and being left handed doesn't hurt. He reminds me of Mark Mulder (the 2000-2002 version) and will almost certainly be gone by the Cards pick. His ceiling is not as high as some others, but he should at least be a #3 in the majors. There is also some fast track possibilities because of his advanced change.

Aaron Crow--I would say the chances of him being available are slim to slimmer. He is a 6'3 righty out of Mizzou. He can get it up there in the upper 90's (97!!) with some movement. He also has a future out pitch in a slider and a change-up that has potential to be a 3rd pitch to set up hitters. Like many hard throwers, his command seems raw. But, his stuff his absolutely Ace-like. I think he is the syrest arm in the draft outside of Brian Matusz. However, Crow's ceiling is much higher.

Tanner Schepers--A 6'4 RHP out of Fresno State, he mixes a low to mid 90's fastball that moves with a plus slider. He rarely throws a change, but the same can be said about Chris Carpenter. He has a very high ceiling, but there is also a big "miss factor" here. He is fairly new to the mound (was recruited as a SS) and may take a little more time in the minors than other collegiate pitchers. However, there is also a big "hit factor" here. He could be an Ace/#2 in the bigs in 3 years.

Shooter Hunt--A 6'3 Righty from Tulane with a great 1-2 fastball curveball combo. His walk rates are a little high, but he is a bulldog on the mound with great poise. He could be an Ace, but I am hesitant to use that terminology. He seems a little like Adam Ottavino.

Christian Friedrich--A 6'3 Lefty out of Eastern Kentucky, he mixes an average fastball (won't get harder than 92/93) with a plus plus curve and a cutter. A big caveat here is his lack of a change-up. He has it but it is far below average. That won't cut it for a 1st round lefty. He will be drafted higher than he should be because of his lefthandedness.


In a perfect world, we would get one of the 1st 2. However, they will probably both be gone. If that is the case, Scheppers seems to be the man.

May 28 Wrap

A quick organizational report today.

Bigs
Waino went 8, allowed just 1 run on 3 hits. He walked 1 batter and struck out 8. Not a bad night. He currently sports a 2.86 ERA and a 3:1 K:BB. He has given up just 66 hits in 78 innings. His WHIP is above 1, but not by much.

No outstanding offensive performances to speak of. I didn't see the game, but it must have been a very scrappy 6 runs.

AAA
Like the big club, Memphis gets a 6-1 W. Rasmus is starting to walk and hit again. He was on base 60% of the time yesterday.

Big story down there is also pitching. Mitch Boggs went the distance and allowed just 1 run on 5 hits. He walked 4 (no good), but K'ed 5. He has a 3.17 ERA---I bet he gets a shot next year whether it is in the pen or rotation.

AA
Jose Martinez homered again. His subpar start could end up being a solid season. He has 4 jacks. SHane Robinson contributed 3 hits in 5 ABs.
Pitching was so-so. Mark McCormick walked 4 and allowed 3 ERs in 5 innings. He only struck out 2. Although his ERA is 2.45, he has given up more walks than Ks.

A
Palm Beach won 3-2. No stellar performances to speak of, although Fransisco Samuel did strike out 2 of 3 he faced.

Quad Cities only managed 2 hits in a 4-1 loss.

Names for Draft

I never get too much into the ML baseball draft. There are simply too many players for me to wrap my mind around. However, this year I have got into it a little more. That is because the Cards have a high pick (#13) and there are some local kids that are going to make a big splash. One of them is Aaron Crow. He is a Missouri RHP that projects as a #2 in the bigs. He has a 4:1 K:BB and a solid frame. He will probably be gone by the time the Cards pick. Some believe he could sneak into the top 5. 6-10 is more likely. The other 2 big time local prospects are Tim Melville and Jake Odorizzi, the 2nd and 8th best high school pitchers respectively (says Baseball America). Melville is tall with 2 plus pitches already (fastball, curveball). He has been compared to Adam Wainwright. His command may be an issue and he lacks a 3rd pitch, but he is only a high schooler. Those things can be developed with time and minor league training. I would love to see the Cards take him, but I doubt it will happen because of team philosophy (they prefer college arms) and his dropping stock (13 seems to be pretty high for him at this point). The guy that interests me most his Jake Odorizzi for a number of reasons.
#1--He is from the same town in which I currently reside (Highland,IL)
#2--He could project as a pitcher or a shortstop, where he excels with the glove and bat
#3--He could be a really good pitcher and could be had in round 2 for the Cards

Let's follow up on #3. His best pitch is his 2 seam fastball (a necessity for the Cardinal organization). He also mixes in a 4 seamer that he can get up there about 3-4 mph faster (it has been clocked as high as 95 as of his Junior year). His curve is already a plus pitch and he is working on both a slider and a change up. By my count, he has 3 plus pitches as a high schooler and could have 2 more by the time he cracks the bigs. One "knock" on him is the fact that he doesn't strike out a ton of batters (although 106 K's in 70 innings looks pretty good to me; its a slightly better average than Melville ironically). In the eyes of the organizational philosophy, that is no knock at all---pitch to contact. Throw that 2 seamer and let your defense make the outs. Another knock is his size---he is a wiry 6'2, 170. I guess you could call it "room to grow". I would love to see the Cards make him a 2nd rounder. Of course, with that 0.00 ERA of his, he may not be available come the Cards 2nd pick.

I will next feature a few hitters that could be looked at when lucky #13 rolls around.

Zach Collier--He is a high school outfielder that fits the bill of athletic/strong. I doubt he would be the pick because of the presence of Daryl Jones in the system, but he is one to watch.

Aaron Hicks-a 6'2, 170 switch hitting OF; he could probably handle the defense in the majors right now, but the offense is raw. If the Cards are looking long term/tools, he would be a good pick

Brett Wallace--He is a 3rd baseman at Arizona State. That right there makes him a logical choice for the Cards. 3rd base is a barren wasteland in the minors (Allen Craig is a lone mediocrity). He can flat out hit. He hits from the left side, has good plate discipline and some pop. One big caveat--he may project as a 1B or a defensive liability at 3rd. At this point, I would take a defensive liability at 3rd if he can hit.

Game Notes and others

First off, last night's game was a real stinker. It reminded me of the 2007 Cardinals. They showed little hard, little passion, and basically little ability. Very few positives can be taken from the game. Albert was on base a bunch and Barton hit a home run. For some reason, Ludwick sat the bench again (seriously Tony---he's a freaking All Star at this point!!!) and Duncan sucked at the plate, in the field, and probably on the bench. Looper looked awful. It is a wonder how he is on pace for 18 wins. Overall, it was just a frustrating game. Oh, and why must we continue to deal with Kennedy. He has to be one of the worst #6 hitters this decade. It is time to start looking for an alternate with a little power. Grudzelanik (I butchered that) available yet?

In the minors, we fared a little better. We were down at Memphis 8-1 in the 5th. I checked this morning. We lost 10-8. A loss is a loss, but you gotta love the fight. Bryan Anderson went 4 for 5 (4 singles) while Colby went 2 for 4 with a 2b and a BB. Perhaps he is waking up. Next stop for him---the Mendoza Line!

Palm Beach won handily. Kyle Mura threw 8.1 IP, giving up just 2 runs while striking out 6. Nice night. I don't know too much about him, but here you go. He is 23 in Palm Beach (a little old for that league). He has a 4:1 K:BB---pretty nice. He has thrown 49 innings and has 38 Ks. He has given up some hits, but has seemingly always limited the long ball (only 1 this year).

Prospect Notes

I want to talk about a few prospects of note in my prospect notes.
Let's start in Springfield, just a hop skip and jump from the bigs (literally and figuratively)

Fernando Salas-an ERA of 1.86 and a K/BB of 6:1. His 48 K's have come in 29 innings. In those 29 innings, he has allowed just 16 hits. I am salivating over what might become the filthiest 7-8-9 in the big leagues in 2 years. I am talking about Motte-Salas-Perez.

Shane Robinson-A 369 average is great whether your name is Shane Robinson or Albert Pujols (or Ryan Ludwick for that matter). He already has 8 more RBI than a year ago and his walks and strikeouts line up fairly equally (he does neither very often). I like to see the 10 SB. He probably has a 4th/5th OF ceiling, but that's ok---you need 5 OF on a big league roster.

Pete Kozma-The former 1st rounder is starting to show us why he was that. He is hitting 286 with a 370 OBP. Those are reasonable for a guy that is projected to be a plus defender. Of his 48 hits, 13 have gone for extra bases. That also seems fairly reasonable.

David Freese-He is a 3rd baseman that came over in the Edmonds deal. The 272 average is fine for a power guy. He isn't a great home run guy (he's got 5), but 17 of his 44 hits have gone for extra bases. He has only 12 times to 43 strike outs. I would love to see that improve. 1 plus---he skipped AA (A to AAA is a big jump). 1 minus--He is already 25. Of course, Chase Utley didn't come up until 26 or so. Maybe Freese could project as a poor man's Jeff Kent?

Curveballs

Man, I don't think I have ever seen a guy throw so many consecutive curveballs. Don't get me wrong, Parisi has a darn good curve. But you gotta think that eventually they can sit on it and whack a game winning single to right field. I was just shocked that it took so long for a hitter to do it. When the game was over, I wasn't even mad or upset or frustrated. Sometimes, the opposition just beats you. It was nobody's fault. We didn't pitch poorly, play porous defense, leave runners on base or anything like that. One major league team just did enough to beat another major league team. That's all. You've got to look at the positives. Todd Wellemeyer. Might I remind you that he was released by the Kansas City Royals about a year ago. He is our 3rd best starter and that is no slap at Pineiro/Loper. Wellemeyer has simply been that good, and he seems to be getting better by the start. In fact, he may even be our #2. I find myself thinking about the future of this organization. Wellemeyer is putting himself into that conversation. Other positives of note---McLellan. He is leading the majors in holds, take it for what its worth. All I know is that it is nice to have a 4 pitch guy out of the pen who throws fairly hard. He has to be in the rotation conversation next spring. Finally, lets go back to Mike Parisi. I don't think that he will be in rotation 2009, but I have liked him a lot so far. If he can throw that many curveballs for strikes and consistently fool major league hitters with it (with the exception of a single pitch), it must be a darn good offering. I am not sure if he has a 3rd good pitch. One way or another, I would love to see him stick around as a long man. By my estimation, we are putting together a stellar pitching staff for 2009 right now.

I don't want to take away from the here and now, but this is an exciting situation. Here is an early projection for our pitching outlook:

Rotation
Chris Carpenter
Adam Wainwright
Todd Wellemeyer
Joel Pineiro
Kyle McLellan/Jaime Garcia

Bullpen
Kyle McLellan/Jaime Garcia
Mitchel Boggs
Mike Parisi
Randy Flores
Tyler Johnson
Ryan Franklin
Chris Perez

I have not even included Thompson, Reyes, Izzy, Motte, or Kinney, We still look like we're in good shape.

In LA

18 innings,1 run---that is how our pitching staff has done so far in LA. Perhaps they don't have the best offense, but these are major league hitters. Lohse was just as good last night as Waino on Friday. Perez once again showed that he is the deal. McLellan looked very good. Our offense showed that they can score without Ryan Ludwick.


To quote "The Polar Express"---I Believe: This team is for real.

Pitching

Last night, Wainwright was very good. He was not stellar, but he was very good. A very good Adam Wainwright can shut down any lineup in baseball. The 1 run that did score could have been prevented had Ludwick played the ball differently. However, I don't think now is a good time to criticize our best hitter. One thing that I would like to see Waino do, however, is throw more sliders/cutters. He has a solid 3rd pitch there, but he rarely relies on it for more than a throw away. I would like to see him develop it into an out pitch. It has that sort of potential. One thing about last night's game that stuck out for some reason was an AB by Juan Pierre. It was later in the game, maybe 6th or 7th. Wainwright zipped a 92 mph fastball by Pierre's bat on the outside corner for a strikeout. This might not seem like a big deal, but this was only Pierre's 5th K of the season in 131 at bats. Still, not that big of a deal. However, it is the way that Pierre looked at the plate. Usually, as a general rule of thumb, hitters are told at a young age to look for the fastball and adjust to the offspeed junk. Pierre was way behind on the pitch as if to say that he expected a curve ball. So, now hitters fear Wainwright's curve ball. They are trying to adjust to fastballs that they won't touch because their timing is off. I am happy to see Waino/Yadi recognize this. The fastball was beautiful pitch selection.
Speaking of fastballs, how about Chris Perez!! I have never been so excited to see a reliever pitch. I am at the edge of my seat in anticipation when he comes to the mound. The crazy thing is that Hrabosky and everyone keep saying that he has a filthy slider. I have seen him throw it about 3 times so far. It has nice movement---tight action, but he hasn't even needed it yet. Rock and fire! That is all he needs right now. When he starts throwing the filth, hitters will be at his mercy.

Mather Time!!

Joe Mather has 10 Homers at AAA. He walks more than he K's. He plays a solid defense and can play 5 positions (if need be). His OPS is 1084(!!!!!) right now. All this is true while Brian Barton hits 250 for the big club with porous defense and limited power. Something must be done. I understand the Rule 5 rules, but we could work out a deal with Cleveland. Mather needs to be brought up!!

What's Up With Colby?

The Cards top prospect, Colby Rasmus, is struggling. That is putting it very gently. His line is really starting to worry me. In 198 at bats, he is 21 point below the Mendoza Line. His OPS is about 200 down from his career mark. The homers are there---somewhat. He has 6 to go along with 6 RBIs. Early on, I thought it was a fluke--maybe tough luck. Nope. Line drive rate is down from 23% to 8%. That is scary bad. Strikeouts and walks basically line up to his career numbers, but he is just not squaring the ball. Now, he is routinely going 0 for games and hitting 8th in the lineup. Hopefully, he will figure it out soon and cool the worries in the minor league blogosphere, but right now there is cause for concern.

Cards Win! Cards Win!

This has become a common theme this year. Last night was no different. It's nice to get a victory with little actual offensive production out of Albert. Skip was on base 5 times....5 TIMES!!! That epitomizes the job of a lead-off hitter in the big leagues. Looper was solid, not spectacular. Defense was very good again---namely Skip's big diving catch in center. The hitting was timely---2 out scoring is a thing of beauty. The Padres may be a bunch of cast offs and also rans this year, but wins are wins. Let's go get 'em at Chavez this weekend!